stock market getting BTFO
what's your excuse for not shorting the market?
Because the brokerage is going to go out of business before I cash in my short.
Because I'm hoping to return some gains on some bad picks before I sell them back and then I'm going to sit out till the Bears take over.
Also there is nothing to trigger a crash right now.
Boohoo oil is low and China isn't a fucking growth madman.
Energy is gettig shit on and bankruptcies are all over the place but it's not happening across the market
as an active trader you can make a lot of money a lot faster off of this than with most stocks. but sure for passive money just buy good stocks.
10-month moving average just shifted from positive to negative trend in OMXS30
Typical. I'm just about to buy into a tracker fund but think I'm going to give it a bit more time while it's heading downwards. I'm going very long but no point me buying right now while it's going down.
I just want to get started though.
you can actively trade until the random volatility eats you alive. "enter short here...oh shit! what did they say?! it rallied 200 points in .0005 seconds? WTF???!!!" it may be better to simply go long volatility or puts.
S&P500's monthly chart has flipped on SAR, haven't happened for more than one month since the end of 2010.
S&P500's weekly charts have closed below the 50 week MA for the first time in the last 4 years.
Holding TVIX...DXD...for way to long. Hoping to get enough to buy the bottom and around we go. Should be a pretty impressive sell off when it really happens. Would anyone be surprised at this point? When oil doesn't come back fast enough you'll get your collapse. Which is what happen basically.
you don't understand, counterparty risk has nothing to do with assets and everything to do with WHO HOLDS your assets. money is a liquid asset but when a BANK holds it, counterparty risk becomes a factor.
if >>910363 goes short, the position may be reversed due to liquidity or solvency issues at the brokerage. if a brokerage goes under all of the accounts are usually moved to another house but that could take months, leaving you without a way to exit the position timely.
Assuming the rule of law still holds. Big assumption I know. And you cover your short position. You are ensured that money and compensation for your losses. You sold those shares the money is yours and needs to be refunded. In case of a large liquidity event does occur I may be out of trading for a bit but I'll have my money, The reason the markets exist in the first place is because of these safeguards
MF global: corzine and his buddies stuck customer money into unsegregated accounts, big bank creditors got the judge to say customers = unsecured creditors because money wasn't segregated.
remember that when a broker goes bankrupt all trading ceases. you can't cover unless you have a 2nd brokerage account to buy equivalent shares you shorted. also, the position is borrowed shares and is dependent on the broker, it may be reversed while accounts are moved to a new house.
samefag different ID.
Check this out nigger, I closed all my shorts for the day so they're not on chart display. Caught the Dax right at the top though.
<<<VXX position I've had since last month.
Now im gonna go smoke some weed.
>oct 2014: nice bottom, bull trend
>now: 2 bounces, 3rd penetrated, on the 4th it will fall. it's below 38 fib too
current bear trend in jeopardy if we see OMXS30 above 1435 tomorrow
i'm talking about short-term trading.
DAX is currently right on the edge between opening above/below 9700 tomorrow. if it opens below 9700, then the bearish scenario as in >>914755 is more likely, and if it opens above then the bullish scenario as in >>914756 is more likely. the situation is similar in >>914754. the beginning of the next week will probably be very important in deciding which general direction we'll be heading in the short-term. up until now it was a fairly safe bet to short the tips but right now it's more uncertain. the guy who made the brilliant analyses in >>911200 >>911806 >>911938 >>912672 >>912673 >>913702 >>914754 >>914755 gives it another 3 days for bears to prove themselves or else he will turn bullish.
in case you didn't notice, 10200 is right below the 0.382 fibonacci level of 10222.16
>i'm talking about short-term trading.
Who cares then? Do you think people in casinos stand around and try to have meaningful, intelligent conversation about whether the roulette wheel is going to land on red or black?
The last thing /biz/ needs is another /coin-flipping general/ pretending to be an investment thread.
>the last thing /biz/ needs is for people like you to shit up the day trading threads
You want to have a day trading thread? Fine, then label your thread as such and you'll be left in peace.
I'm a believer in economic Darwinism. If you morons want to piss your money away, and prattle with each other like lemmings while you do it, it makes no difference to me. My 4chanX filter hides your shitfests automatically,
But if you make a thread title referring to th general markets, then don't act butthurt when people smarter than you show up and start laughing.
you probably have money in stocks or someshit, right? probably because the long-term trend is up and you're buying and selling stocks (or stakes in index funds or whatever) that tend to go up. day traders and swing traders do the same thing, just on smaller time scales. i was shorting the market because the trend from a short-term perspective is down. it's the same shit as what you're doing, just on a smaller time scale, so if you detest that then you're a dumbass hypocrite if you have any stakes in the market yourself. the market has a fractal-like pattern; you can apply the same techniques to do successful trades intra-minute, intra-day, intra-month, intra-year, intra-decade and so on.
>day traders and swing traders do the same thing, just on smaller time scales
No you don't. Short-term trading, momentum or swing trading, and day-trading bear NOTHING in common with long-term investing.
To understand this, you need to first understand the reason WHY world markets have a positive long-term bias. It's not because the markets are naturally geared to rise, or because capitalization increases are inevitable with the passage of time.
The real reason is that the world capital markets are influenced by factors OUTSIDE the buy and sell decisions of the market participants. Nationalistic factors, such a GDP growth and population growth, positively influence local markets. Certain cultural changes also positively influence markets, such as women entering the work force, trends towards longer working hours, and less vacations. Developments in legal and regulatory structures eliminate market inefficiencies, such as corruption, price manipulation, and insider trading. And lastly, technological advancement generally contributes to both demand and efficiency gains, providing a strong positive bias in affected markets.
NONE of these factors apply in short-term or day-trading. Not one. All of the proven positive influences are long-term market factors that have no effect on short-term pricing.
Thus, there is no positive market bias when you trade. In short-term trading, its just the whim of the buyers and sellers that dictate price. You are simply guessing that prices will move in one direction, and your counterpart is guessing the opposite.
Now, like I said before, I don't care if you want to gamble in the stock markets. People like you keep the exchanges and the brokers wealthy, and help keep fees low for long-term investors like me. So by all means: keep on with your day-trading. You're literally subsidizing my investment expenses, so thanks for that.
But don't pretend that what you do bears ANY resemblance to long-term investing.
If you didn't understand all the words, take your time and parse through it slowly. It's not a race.
Feel free to ask if you get lost. There are no stupid questions, only stupid day-traders.
the current situation is starting to look bullish. trade with caution.
There is going to be a world wide crash bro. There will be a violent move to the upside, everyone will think the market is now recovering from the bottom. Then all of the sudden........
Is stock trading a fool's errand? I want to get into it (I'll still work of course) but it isn't like achieving a career through hard work and education (Everyone can be a winner if they put their minds to it). Stock trading seems to be a zero sum game. There have to be losers for there to be winners.
Bonds will crash. Cash will flow to stocks no matter what. Actually, increasing rates 2016 will cause stock market to shoot up, the opposite you would expect.
you got a point there.main point is, dont spend a minute of your life trying to make living thry daytrading.
it's not a zero-sum game because money flows in and out of the market all the time, it's not a fixed sum. money gets printed and (pumped in by the fed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing) and that money finds its way into stocks, and companies themselves provide money through dividends and buybacks.
>There have to be losers for there to be winners.
not necessarily. if you buy some crap from a chinese factory for $1 a piece and sell them in america for $10 a piece, it doesn't mean that someone loses $9. it takes two to tango - each trade has two "willing" participants. high-frequency traders provide liquidity, like if you're a normal value investor who just want to sell your stocks and not sit around for hours trying to squeeze out fractions of a percent (if you're lucky - the stock could go down instead!) then you can just sell it for a decent price to a day trader.
there are plenty of losers but there are plenty of winners too, in face i would go as far as to say that the majority of people are winners, more or less.
>According to historical records, the average annual return for the S&P 500 since its inception in 1928 through 2014 is approximately 10%.
>The money doesn't grow from thin air.
i refuse to discuss this further ITT because it attracts misinformed responses from butthurt dudebros who think they know all about day trading and technical analysis, so i suggest you make your own thread if you want better responses (you can link the thread from here).
Hey guys. I'm extremely new to the finance world. Recently had my IT startup explode, and have made a fortune over the past 2 years.
I currently have 1.2m in the market. Heavily diversified by my financial adviser.
I have about another 1.5m in cash at the moment.
Safest move for me here is just to hold on to my stocks, right? And if it collapses, throw my other 1.5m when it seems to bottom out?
Have a meeting with my adviser tomorrow, but i'd like to hear what you guys have to say.
in my opinion you should have at least half in non-US markets (mainly european markets but germany is looking weak right now mainly because of the car emission scandal) and in currencies other than US dollars. the US dollar is very strong right now and i think it will get weaker, and for example the SEK (swedish krona) is weak right now so you could get a nice bang for your buck. i'm assuming you have US dollars and it could be a good idea to convert them into other things while their value is still high.
i don't think we're done with this correction/recession/crash but i think you'll be fine if you keep your stocks and then start to buy more stocks as the market goes down.
> OP getting BTFO
> what's your excuse for not laughing your ass off right now?
First time I've heard this outlook. I could see it happen. Damn.
Only counter point I've got is that bonds and equities have been strongly correlated for 20 years. Could just be final effect of super bubble in bonds.
depends on your risk tolerance. anon seems to be more concerned about wealth preservation than maximizing his returns. his startup is doing well anyway. pic related shows how diversified i am...
How long have you been trading? Do you expect those returns for the next 5 years? I find it hard to believe that people can live off daytrading. Then again, it's probably easy to live with $30000/yr from trading in Sweden since they give you welfare money.
the chart is the YTD of my stocks, it's a passive investment. sometimes it feels overly risky to have all my savings in one stock but it's been doing really well and it's the only stock and company that has really impressed me enough for me to buy it. i've had it for almost 2 years and i've been putting all my savings into it (now i keep some cash too but the cash is mainly for trading). if it keeps growing at this rate i could easily live off of the returns by itself but luckily i can just reinvest it and save more because i get welfare and have low costs of living.
i'm fairly new to trading but i'm a fast learner. this summer i played around a little bit with the stocks but it's so low volume, there's no leverage, and sudden unexpected news can make me have to buy back the stocks several percent more expensive.
as a complete novice i started trading bull/bear certificates for a month from the end of august to the end of september this year and it seemed profitable ("seemed" because i didn't do it long enough to get much useful statistics out of it) but i took a break from it because i got pissed off that the spread took away the majority of the actual profit and that i didn't get to trade the DAX unless i took even more spread on the certificates.
but i didn't feel motivated to keep working on my mobile game and now i'm back since last week except i trade mini futures instead of bull/bear certificates. mini futures are great because the cost per trade is only around 1 point in the DAX (DAX is at around 10000 so 1 point is around 1/10000th) so that even quick little 10-20 point trades are plenty profitable.
i'm still learning and adjusting my trading style but what i do now is basically wait and observe the charts (and to some degree the news and what people say on twitter) until i see a great opportunity before making an entry. if it doesn't go as as planned i exit as soon as possible at break even or with a small loss, otherwise i close half or the entire position at a nice amount of profit or if i think it can keep going i simply move the exit point so that i "lock in" a certain amount of profit but keep the position open as long as it moves in the right direction.
i put in ~30% of my cash with ~6x leverage on each entry, and this means that i only need to net a total of ~30 points for the day to get a 0,5% gain on all of the cash i trade with. 30 points seems very feasible (easy, even) to keep up in the long run, and i might be able to average more than that, at least with the current amount of volatility. if the DAX is up 0,1% in one day that's only ~10 points, but if you add up all the zigs and the zags inbetween it's quite a lot of movement and you have plenty of room to be quite passive and just wait for the best opportunities.
you can get very rich if you're able to trade profitably on average:
+0,25%/day for 1250 days (5 years of trading) with reinvestment: you'll have 1,0025^1250=22,7 times your initial investment
+0,5%/day for 1250 days: 510x
+1,0%/day for 1250 days: 252184x
The issue with those daily returns is it's actually exceptionally hard to return even a quarter of a percent day after day after day.
That's exactly why I've been reading so much about trading. I want to do it.
yeah it's not easy and it takes a lot of experience because there are many different scenarios you could encounter. i haven't proved to myself that i can do it day after day and there are many things i have yet to learn. like today so far i took 3 failed entries that i had to bail out of with a 27 point loss and then i didn't take the 4th entry. but if i had been persistent with my plan i would have made up to 60 points on the 4th entry or even more if i left it open. the situation spooked many experienced traders on twitter too though and to me it was an unusual situation because i thought the 1st entry would do it and the deutsche bank stock (part of the DAX) has freaking increased despite the horrible news yesterday which doesn't really make sense.
the market is crazy bullish right now. short-term peak expected somewhere around 12th of october.
now i keep missing out on trades because i don't want to make entries too soon... jeez. at least i don't go into the red on a completely missed trade but i do miss out on the green. but it's very hard to trade the current situation so it might be a good idea to stay cautious.
on september 24th they were warning about a further decline in the stock market... today when the index is at +7% from then they say stocks are cheap and now is the time to buy...
This is how people "buy high sell low". If you think the market is going to tank then you don't do it in one swoop. You take a small position and then wait while allowing events to develop because shorting is dangerous. As the market goes up, you keep on top of the position then add more a bit at a time. If the market starts going sideways or slightly down, you can add more on the waves. The great thing about staggered orders is that a small position can be reversed if the situation changes for little to no loss.
Essentially, buy on the way down, sell on the way up. Do the reverse of average people do.