Criminal cases are based on reasonable doubt, no the balance of probabilities. Probability estimates are not evidence. They're supposition, circumstantial at best. Given the ability for so-called experts to get the calculations wrong and for jurors to misinterpret results, it should be used very carefully if at all (that case of the Dutch nurse prosecuted for murdering patients is another example – see Bad Science). This is not anti-science or anti-math. It’s recognizing what probability theory is actually telling you. After all, banks use very sophisticated probability/statistical analysis to evaluate financial risk. The use of these approaches contributed to the banks thinking their financial instruments were low risk on the downside, and yet the downside happened anyway. You want your guilt evaluated in the same way (even partially)?
I once successfully defended myself in court using similar reasoning. (Fortunately, it wasn't the sort of trial that required DNA testing. And no, I didn't do it.)
The key point is that the faulty stats derive from an assumption of guilt. If you are assumed to be guilty, then a positive DNA test reinforces that. But if instead you are assumed to be innocent until proven otherwise, then the test doesn't provide much evidence.
>>7586588 No, you have it backward. Using faulty stats, it was likely that he was guilty by a factor of 10000. Using proper logic, it was unlikely that he was guilty by a factor of 100.
>>7586815 I hope you end up on trial some day, with someone like you on the jury.
>>7586570 >Anyway, I teach the Bayesian approach to post-graduate students attending my 'Applied Bayesian Statistics' course at Cambridge, and so I must now tell them that the entire philosophy behind their course has been declared illegal in the Court of Appeal. I hope they don't mind. Hahaha! Also, settings -> Quotes and Replies -> Legacy Captcha
All trademarks and copyrights on this page are owned by their respective parties. Images uploaded are the responsibility of the Poster. Comments are owned by the Poster.
This is a 4chan archive - all of the content originated from them. If you need IP information for a Poster - you need to contact them. This website shows only archived content.
If a post contains personal/copyrighted/illegal content you can contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org with that post and thread number and it will be removed as soon as possible.