>Was about to be Cam Newton fucking sucks but now it's Cam Newton fucking rocks sub edition
Old bread >>63218013
>FAQ and abbreviations list for those new to /bet/
>Help for gambling addiction/suicide hotlines
>/bet/ approved spreadsheet for tracking your bets
Is cam newton actually good or is he the meme supreme?
Maybe slightly better. This year Newton has literal whos and Greg Olsen. Wilson has a handful of #2s and had a great RB to lean on if he needed to. Newton's doing it all on his own, but sometimes does too much and it hurts him.
>Not covering the spread.
God fucking dammit.
>tfw you have to root for OT for the panthers to have any chance of covering the spread
Who literally making free money here?
>took U 49.5 in the first quarter
>that second-half of the fourth fucking quarter
>all those chances to finish the clots and end the game
>don't even have the decency to lose 26-23 in OT
Shakhtar vs Malmo - Bet: Shakhtar to win either HT or FT
Real Madrid U19 vs PSG U19 - Bet: Both teams to score
Sevilla U19 vs Man. City U19 - Bet: Both teams to score
Combined Odd: 2.20
Otamendi to score and city to win 2-1
Cheeky punt desu
M'gladback or Draw DC
Real Madrid SW
PSV or Draw DC
Manure or Draw DC
Sevilla or Draw DC
Gent or Draw DC
Chelsea or Draw DC
Bayern Or Arsenal DC
Lyon or Draw DC
Olypiacos or Draw DC
I swear to god this Simeone faglord is an awful coach. He's drawing against fucking Astana and changes a striker for another.
Team needs speed, ball movement not fucking Jackson 'Flop who wont be there next season' Martinez
They're definitely underperforming but travelling away to Kazakhstan is tough as fuck.
Same sort of shit happens when big teams have to travel to Russia, they underperform massively. You can't underestimate how hard a long away trip is.
But Russia has good teams. These guys should be fucking trash and even if they arent i'd expect a La Liga contender, who spent million of euros on the Summer and who reached the CL final 2 seasons ago to win there rather easily
tonight's free money tbqh
>Cardiff not favourites
when you factor in home field advantage I have Leeds as very small favorites by elo. Then considering a ~30% chance of a draw you don't want to take Cardiff at odds less than 3.0. If you have odds at 3.0 or better by all means make the bet as there is small value there - I'm small on Cardiff ML @ 3.05
also, Leeds @ 2.78 ML or better and Draw @ 3.34 or better are value but your not finding either of those so nobody should go after those.
>He's decent but that pass accuracy is abysmal
His accuracy is hugely imroved, though his receivers are crap so they drop the ball anyway.
Nice improvement from him -- he's finally starting to throw passes with a little touch on them, instead of letting the adrenaline kick in and making every pass into a rocket.
Note his picks this year are mostly coming from balls that first hit the receiver, where in the past they were coming from over-thrown balls.
>What is your system's ROI?
not sure yet. designed it around 3 seasons data on paper using premier League data and Vegas odds and it comes in at ~3.5%.
obviously the english champions League is not the premiership and the odds I have available do not mirror Vegas odds. I trust it enough to say you shouldn't bet on Leeds or a draw at the odds available but I'm can't be sure how exactly it will scale with a lower league. more research is I'm order basically
1 min · Tipster · Edited
Deportivo Municipal Reserves -0.5 (Win) at home to Cienciano Reserves - Bet365 - Medium @ 1.975
Was originally priced up as a DNB and I had it as a large potential at 4/5 last night, some value went unfortunately earlier today, was 8/11 for the win when I checked earlier.
14-6 DA's, will edit.
>but how does the system factor in qualitative data that could be pivotal in some cases?
you mean like 'player x is injured' and that kind of thing? it doesn't. the system really just flags obvious misprices for further investigation
I tipped Deportivo Municipal Reserves win large the other day against a worse side (UTC), that won with 2 late goals. This isn't as good a bet today as Cienciano are better than UTC, hence the downgrade to medium, would have been large on a DNB potentially.
Cienciano are the highest based team in Peru at almost 3400metres, which gives them a false position in the league where their ability is overrated due to victories at home because of the altitude. Municipal are from Lima (No altitude).
1st vs 5th. Municipal are top of the league by 2 points but have played an extra game of 2 than a few behind them.
Cienciano's away record:
Melgar 1-0 Cienciano (Melgar 6th)
UTC 0-1 Cienciano (UTC 17th - Last, awful and play at 2750m)
Unión Comercio 2-0 Cienciano (Comercio 8th)
Universitario 1-0 Cienciano (Universitario 7th)
Real Garcilaso 0-1 Cienciano (Garcilaso 16th, awful and play at 3400m)
León de Huánuco 2-1 Cienciano (Huánuco 3rd)
Ok so now we look at it in greater detail. They have lost 4/6 away games, all against teams lower and worse than Municipal. Their only two away victories come against the botom 2 clubs in the league, who also play at altitude. Now they are at sea level against the league leaders. Home win for me all day long.
I used to be a competition athlete before getting inte shrewdie stuff, was training daily for a few hours but these days i don't really have the time to spare. Unfit with money isn't that bad.
Is there a better feeling in this world than cashing out profit on a losing bet and switching over to a winning bet?
>a dude no one knows
maybe you don't fagit
Just now · Tipster
Redditch United 0 asian from 2-1 up away to Sutton Coldfield - Bet365 - Medium @ 1.75
Only got the Sutton lineup, they are playing 10/11 regulars.
Got to play this though with in-play stats. 12-1 shots at HT now 15-1.
panthers were leading for the almost the entire game, the line originally starting at like 1.5, eventually dropping to like 1.25 at the half and ML disappearing at 6-23 which is when I stopped watching the odds so it looked odd to me
betting live-in-play on dota 2 was free money. bet365 got taken to the cleaners and now they no longer offer live-in-play dota :(
Yes, I cashed out early on a few of those bets and lost a few dollars, but you can see overall the profit was quite nice. And that was just 3 games. I was betting on almost every game available. I made $6000 betting on DotA in October.
And now it's fucking done. Bet365 has keked me once again!
Oioi lads what's the best way to do this Arsenal v Bayern offer? Am I right in thinking it's DC(a/b) pregame and then Fulltime Result (c) inplay? Do we do the shorter odds pregame or inplay? Shite at maths lol
why didn't you tell the rest of us so we could have all made money
Bayern 50 + 37.5 @ 1.4 = 122.50
Draw 50 @ 5.25 = 262.50 (in play)
Arsenal 12.50 @ 8 = 100 (Another bookie - Skybet for me)
22.50 Profit if Bayern win.
112.50 if draw.
Break even if Arsenal win
I think their idea is that it's void if he doesn't play so that gets refunded to you. So you have a risk free bet to do whatever with in play.
I'm not sure if the bet is definitely void though.
You are giving yourself a free £50 with no risk.
The in-play is refunded (if you lose) as part of the special offer and the pre-game is refunded as he wont play.
Do NOT ask any more dumb questions.
Because I don't want to be a tripfag.
Besides, betting live-in-play you only have very small windows of opportunity. You usually only get juicy odds open for a window of less than minute. Sometimes it's a matter of seconds.
desu only way it doesn't work is if you fuck up big time and your player starts or you fuck up small time and he gets subbed on before the first goal happens. haven't seen them cancel the bet pre-game either, worst case scenario is you find another way to get the refund
>we all have 5 figure rolls
heh heh... yeah...
You haven't been away that long, Maple
I'm on NJ Devils ML pretty large and already regretting it. Hoping that the Isles miss Tavares too much, plus their goalie let in 2(TWO) from 17 shots last game
Can someone try to explain american football to me in like, a few sentences? I don't really get it. At all. Also I think it's boring as fuck to watch, but that may be because I don't know the rules.
Imagine the big strong black men on the field are like the big strong black immigrants trying to get into your country, the ball is a white woman and the endzone is the border into your country.
What do you want to understand?
The team with the ball is trying to get it to the endzone, the other team is trying to stop them.
They get 4 attempts to move it 10 yards and if they do this they get a new set of 4 attempts (downs).
Possession switches over to the other team when there is an Interception, Fumble or the other team fails to get 10 yards in 4 downs.
that actually summed it up pretty nicely. Had no clue about the downs syndrome rule. Still, don't ya'll think the sport itself is a bit... overhyped? I mean I just see X number of guys running into each other in a wall, rinse, repeat.
And when the fuck can you kick the ball?
And why does everything give such random number of points?
They often kick the ball on the 4th down because posession turns over where the play is on the field.
So they want the other team to start from their end.
You can also kick a field goal if you are close enough to the big stick things.
There are a lot of rules desu. Just watch some games if you are interested in learning m8.
You can (as a team) kick the ball whenever you want, but you'd only do it in regular play on the 4th down, either for a field goal if you're close enough, or a punt if you're not. If you chose to try a fourth time, if you fail on creating a first down (making it 10+ yards from the first spot), you turn over the ball to the opposition from that spot, so you kick on fourth unless it's desperate or you're confident that you can either make it, or that the risk is okay because your defence can shut them down anyway.
Punts give the possession over to the opposition. The ball is stopped dead (touched to the ground by someone on your team), caught by an opposing player and ran back, or just caught by an opposing player for a fair catch (you can't hit them and they can't run it back).
Every kick other than punt is for an extra point after a touchdown, or just the kickoff (basically a punt but more fun).
>1/2 (PAT, points-after-touchdown) depending on if you want to just kick it through the goal or try to get basically a mini touchdown.
>2 (safety, defensive play where you force them to fuck up in their own end zone)
>3 (field goal, if you're too shit to keep a drive all the way to the end-zone for a touchdown)
You should give it a go watching if you're remotely interested, I personally love it and have watched and played it for a few years now, I think it's much more of a challenging, all-round competitive and skillful sport than most others.
Ah sorry mate I haven't posted any tips on here before, I'll post slip next time
And you can win a buttload if you hit or get a refund if you don't.
Whats the point in pussying out and winning a tiny sum when its completely risk free? Would you ever bet £50 on a long shot if it wasn't risk free? Why not go for it while you can? What is the purpose of grinding out tiny wins from this offer?
Thats exactly the point, you take the Bellerin FGS then try to hit big on a long shot like CS knowing the worst case scenario is you break even.
Whats the point in having a risk free bet and taking something at odds of 2.0ish meaning best case you end up £50ish up? Why bother exploiting to get a risk free bet just to squeeze out a tiny profit?
Smh why couldn't you have given me the confidence to go through with this..? Ended up not acting on it because of the silence.. Haven't done much research into this season myself, hence the hesitation.
Dolny Kubin - Trencin
Kubin barely advanced in the previous round against a non-league side via own goal and penalties, struggling in the 2nd league, 3 games without a win there.
Trencin are fielding a full strength squad and are hands down the best slovak team, won the double last year and are taking the cup seriously again.
I'm also trying to work out what to do here. Bea rin mind I've gone in for the last two Arsenal free in plays this year. Lost my stake both time. Once on Man U +2.5, once on Bayern +1.5
Just put it on Munich SW desu and will probably just bet live. don't think munich drop points to a injury riddled arsenal at home desu obviously it's not guaranteed but whatevs lol
Sinan Kurt probably almost certainly doesn't start and is pretty decent anyway on the off chance that somehow he does play.
However this is why you should do these bets a few days in advance rather than waiting for the day of the match.
>isnt even on the UCL squad
You realise U21s who have been at the club for 2+ years don't need to be registered right?
I mean he isn't gonna play but he doesn't need to be in the UCL squad to be eligible to play.
I already said he won't start, what I'm saying is your point about him not being in the UCL squad is worthless because it doesn't mean he definitely won't start and clearly you didn't realise this and are now trying to cover.
did some research on the Dunajska Streda-Presov match. presov are overachieving, fans don't like the board as it is the oldest club in slovakia but has been unable to get to the 1st league since they got relegated in 12-13. they play offensive football but can;t defend on the road where they conceded 13/14 goals
dunajska streda has been solid at home, their 2 losses came to trencin and a strong myjava side, which they completly outplayed. they looked solid against the top teams and haven't really had a bad game this season tbf, even if the results don't show for it. they are coming from a morale boosting win over zilina and the coach said they will give 100%. they're playing pretty much their strongest line-up
Dunajska streda -1.5 @~2.00 also going small on deep overs, not yet decided, a bit scared of >the magic up the cup la
i don't feel comfy betting on hungarians either, but you gotta do what you gotta do
any ideas for the in-play bet lids? was thinking about costa fgs since debuchy hasn;t started in a while
Ever feel like putting your whole bankroll on something and calling it a day no matter the outcome?
if i ever decided to kill myself, bankrolling something would literally be my first course of action
win-hookers and blow to reevaluate life
lose-there is no loss you mug, it's like a void bet because your life was devoid of happiness anyway
unironically the most +ev decision you can make
I'd note that any post in that thread made after it was originally linked in here is probably someone baiting.
I don't even rule out that you're linking your own post there potentially.
Nah, I doubt it.
The average person is really misinformed about these things. The phrase "the bookies always win" is taken as gospel and nobody ever questions why when it's straight forward, and you don't to play their game of correctly priced mainstream shite getting fucked by overround.
utter utter, DAC dominating as expected, was gonna reback them at 1.80 when it dropped to 1.66 cause some cunts had the same idea i guess, goal like a minute later while waiting for value
that's what i meant, bet on the draw. because it's 1-0 at this point and it's a 2 game series. so if abraxas wins this match it would end 1-1, i.e. draw. the odd is gone now though. it's down to 28 cents LOL